Lisa Winston at MLB.com posted a nice article today on the potential impact this year of the Reds' big four prospects. Ms. Winston concludes that the Reds' prospects have the best chance of propelling their team to the playoffs in 2008 (a la Colorado, Arizona, and Cleveland the past couple of seasons).

For those interested, the most recent edition of the Reds' Hot Stove Notebook includes Winter League statistics. Daniel Guerrero, acquired in the Hamilton trade, pitched very well.

Geoff Young recently wrote an article for the Hardball Times on ten of the worst individual pitching seasons. I had forgetten just how historically awful Eric Milton was in 2005. Here's an excerpt from the column:

#5: Eric Milton, 2005 Reds
IP ERA BA OBP SLG ERA+ OPS+
186.1 6.47 .302 .349 .543 66 136

Once upon a time, Milton was a hot young prospect in the Yankees organization who became part of the package that sent Chuck Knoblauch from Minnesota to the Bronx. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook John Sickels rated Milton as the 23rd best prospect in baseball and compared him favorably to Andy Pettitte. Milton teased for a few years, then got hurt, then lost effectiveness.

Always susceptible to the home run ball, Milton gave up 40 of
them in 2005 (half of which came in his first 11 starts). That's not quite Ken Dixon territory, but it's not good. Milton allowed six runs or more in 11 of his 34 starts.

Despite the fact that opponents were hitting .302 against him and he had 6.47 ERA, the Reds still allowed him to accumulate 186 innings. Of course, my recollection is that the Reds didn't have a lot of other options that year.

This year is Davey Concepcion's fifteenth, and final, year for election by the BBWAA to the Hall of Fame. Concepcion was a nine-time All-Star and won five Gold Gloves. He appeared in the World Series four times as part of the Big Red Machine teams of the 1970s. A strong argument can be made that he was the best shortstop in baseball during the 1970s.

In light of the fact that Concepcion has never received more than 16.9% of the votes (75% is needed to make Cooperstown), it's highly unlikely he'll be voted in this year. But does he deserve to be? Offensively, Davey posted a line of .267/.322/.357 with an OPS+ of 88. He also stole 321 bases, with a success rate of just under 75%. Per Baseball Reference, Davey top ten offensive comps are:

1. Bobby Wallace .268/.332/.358 OPS+ 105
2. Tony Fernandez .288/347.399 OPS+ 101
3. Omar Vizquel .274/.340/.357 OPS+ 84
4. Royce Clayton .258/.312 /.367 OPS+ 77
5. Bert Campaneris .259/.311/.342 OPS+ 89
6. Frank White .255/.293/.383 OPS+ 85
7. Luis Aparicio .262/.311/.343 OPS+ 82
8. Pee Wee Reese .269/.366/.377 OPS+ 99
9. Tony Taylor .261/.321/.352 OPS+ 88
10. Red Schoendienst .289/.337.387 OPS+ 93

Wallace, Aparicio, Reese, and Schoendienst are Hall of Famers. Of the four, the only player that Concepcion was better than offensively was Aparicio. However, Aparicio was probably better defensively (he at least won more Gold Gloves).

Concepcion was a great player, and a key part of the Big Red Machine teams of the 70s. He's always been one of my favorite Reds players. Although an argument can be made that Concepcion is Hall of Fame worthy, I think he falls just a bit short.