Lisa Winston at MLB.com posted a nice article today on the potential impact this year of the Reds' big four prospects. Ms. Winston concludes that the Reds' prospects have the best chance of propelling their team to the playoffs in 2008 (a la Colorado, Arizona, and Cleveland the past couple of seasons).

For those interested, the most recent edition of the Reds' Hot Stove Notebook includes Winter League statistics. Daniel Guerrero, acquired in the Hamilton trade, pitched very well.

The Goodyear City Council will vote on an agreement on Monday night (January 28th) that would require both the City of Goodyear and the Reds to negotiate exclusively with each other regarding Goodyear's spring training facility and the Reds future spring training plans. Assuming the agreement is approved, and both sides sign the agreement, it makes it unlikely the Reds will remain in Sarasota. I think Sarasota County will regret its decision not to spend its tourism taxes (which it's required to spend on projects that promote tourism) on the Ed if the Reds end up in Arizona.

H/t to CTR.

1/28/08 UPDATE: The exclusivity agreement has been signed, sealed, and delivered.

Drake won at Creighton last night in overtime to move to 8-0 in the MVC. Per Jason McCallum of ESPN, this was no small feat:

Creighton's home venue, the Qwest Center Omaha, opened five seasons ago. Prior to Tuesday night, 18 visiting teams had entered that building with one or zero losses. Creighton handed every one of those teams a loss. Drake, which entered the building 16-1, became the first zero- or one-loss team to defeat the Bluejays as the Bulldogs moved to 17-1.

Although Drake's non-conference schedule was a bit soft due in part to the relative suckitude of Iowa and Iowa State this year (Drake beat Iowa State by 35 points), its RPI rating is now 8 (SOS 72). All hail the Bulldogs!

(You'll have to forgive my giddiness as this is the first time since the 1974-75 season that Drake has been ranked in the top 25.)

Geoff Young recently wrote an article for the Hardball Times on ten of the worst individual pitching seasons. I had forgetten just how historically awful Eric Milton was in 2005. Here's an excerpt from the column:

#5: Eric Milton, 2005 Reds
IP ERA BA OBP SLG ERA+ OPS+
186.1 6.47 .302 .349 .543 66 136

Once upon a time, Milton was a hot young prospect in the Yankees organization who became part of the package that sent Chuck Knoblauch from Minnesota to the Bronx. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook John Sickels rated Milton as the 23rd best prospect in baseball and compared him favorably to Andy Pettitte. Milton teased for a few years, then got hurt, then lost effectiveness.

Always susceptible to the home run ball, Milton gave up 40 of
them in 2005 (half of which came in his first 11 starts). That's not quite Ken Dixon territory, but it's not good. Milton allowed six runs or more in 11 of his 34 starts.

Despite the fact that opponents were hitting .302 against him and he had 6.47 ERA, the Reds still allowed him to accumulate 186 innings. Of course, my recollection is that the Reds didn't have a lot of other options that year.

Per Ken Rosenthal, the Reds have signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one year deal for $3 million plus incentives. According to Rosenthal, the Reds intend to give the lefty Affeldt a shot at the starting rotation. In light of the money involved, I think this is good signing by Herr Krivsky. Affeldt was decent as a starter for the Royals in 2002 and 2003. The Consigliere reports that blisters were the primary reason Affeldt was converted to the bullpen. If Affeldt has resolved the problem that caused the blisters, he could be a decent starter for the Reds. However, even if starting doesn't work out for Affeldt, he still solidifies the bullpen. This was a low risk move by Krivsky.

Signing Affeldt still doesn't address the Reds' need for another top of the rotation starter. However, given the outrageous costs for good starting pitching, I'm fine with finding out if Bailey, or perhaps Volquez, can be that top three starter next year. There's also the possibility that Cueto or Maloney could fill that role by 2009.

The Drake Bulldogs (my alma mater, not their cousins from the SEC) are off to a start not seen since the days of Maury John. After last night's win over Bradley, Drake is now 6-0 in the Missouri Valley and 15-1 overall. Not bad for a team picked to finish ninth in the Missouri Valley. It's an unbelievable start for first year head coach Keno Davis, who took over from his father Dr. Tom Davis. There's a reason his name is Keno.

1/19/08 UPDATE: Sans leading scorer Josh Young, Drake rallied to overcome a twelve point second half deficit to beat Illinois State. Drake now has a fifteen game winning streak and is the only remaining undefeated team in the MVC.

MLB Trade Rumors has posted its Needs and Luxuries report on the Reds. Not surprisingly, the report states that starting pitching is the biggest need. Tim argues the Reds really need another front of the rotation starter, not another re-tread like Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko, if the Reds want to make the playoffs. He advocates trading Bruce for Bedard (if the O's would take that offer). Given the outrageous demands the O's have been making for Bedard, I doubt they'd trade him straight up for Bruce, although I think the Reds would have to make that deal if the O's agreed. Otherwise, I think the Reds are better off playing the odds that between Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and Maloney, at least one or two of those guys will become above average starters.

I would note that Jonathan Mayo makes a convincing argument that the Reds shouldn't even trade Bruce for Bedard.

Jim Callis at Baseball America loves Reds' prospects Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Johnny Cueto, but isn't sold on Edinson Volquez:

Volquez has exceeded 50 major league innings, so he's no longer a prospect in our book. He definitely wouldn't have ranked ahead of Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto, arguably the best foursome of prospects in any farm system right now. He probably would have settled in at No. 5, ahead of Stubbs, though I'm not the biggest Volquez fan in the world. I wouldn't have advocated him making the Top 100.

Volquez throws hard and has a nice changeup, but he never has shown a reliable curveball in the big leagues and his control and command always have been spotty. I see him more as a classic tease, a guy who can light up radar guns but never will be the frontline starter his velocity suggests he might become.

However, he did think the Hamilton trade made sense for the Reds despite concerns about why a team like the Rangers would trade a pitching prospect:

Trading Josh Hamilton to get Volquez made sense for the Reds, however. They had the second-worst ERA in the National League last year and more outfielders than they knew what to do with. Now Cincinnati has an opening for Bruce to play in the majors and another candidate for its rotation.

Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?

Per mlbtraderumors.com, it appears that Bartolo Colon has missed his last couple of starts and has yet to hit 90 mph on his fastball. It's probably for the best that the Reds aren't rumored to be in the mix for Mr. Colon.

Reds.com has posted the most recent Hot Stove Notebook, which includes the updated 40-Man Roster (currently at 39) after the Jeff Fiorentino signing on Friday. I was relieved to see that both Castro and Stanton are still on the 40-Man. The notebook also lists the non-roster players invited to spring training, including Andy Phillips and some of the other players signed to minor league contracts on Friday.